News of Conflict
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The Moral Reckoning We're Avoiding
The Questions We Won't AskTo the UAE: How is it acceptable to arm forces committing genocide? How do you justify this to your own citizens? What happe ...
Moral Reckoning
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What Happens Next: Scenarios for 2025-2030
Scenario 1: Frozen Conflict (Most Likely - 60% probability)Characteristics:Effective partition continuesSporadic fighting along boundariesNeither side ...
Scenarios for 2025-2
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Final Observations: The Path Not Taken
[image1]What Could Have Been DoneAt multiple moments, relatively modest international actions could have changed Sudan's trajectory:In 2019 (After Bas ...
Final Observations
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The Complicity of Silence
[image1]Media FailureThe forgotten nature of Sudan's war is itself an atrocity. As one journalist noted:"Because this is an African war, there is a se ...
Complicity of Silenc
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The Likely Future: A Fragmenting Failed State
[image1]Short-Term Trajectory (1-2 Years)Continued Stalemate:RSF consolidates control in the west and southMilitary maintains control in the east and ...
Likely Future
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What Needs to Happen (But Won't)
[image1]Immediate StepsHumanitarian Access:Immediate ceasefire to allow aid deliveryInternational humanitarian corridorsProtection for aid workersEmer ...
What Needs to Happen
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Why Peace Seems Impossible
The Entrenched InterestsMultiple parties benefit from continued conflict:The RSF:Controls gold mining areas worth billionsHas established a de facto s ...
Peace Seems Impossib
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The Current Nightmare: A Country Split and Bleeding
[image1]No End in SightFurther substantial changes in territorial control look unlikely in the near future. The two sides are effectively stalemated:R ...
Current Nightmare
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The Failure of International Response
[image1]Inadequate Mediation EffortsThere have been attempts at peacemaking:American-mediated process in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - but even that did not ...
Failure of Internati
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The Philosophy of Arabization
There are forces within Sudan who argue that the philosophy of the Sudanese Administration is to arabize Sudan. They say this started with Hassan Al T ...
Arabization